What is Apple Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)?
As of today (2024-09-16), Apple's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model is $154.88.
Note: Discounted Cash Flow model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.
Apple's Predictability Rank is 5-Stars.
Margin of Safety (FCF Based) using Discounted Cash Flow model for Apple is -39.58%.
The industry rank for Apple's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) or its related term are showing as below:
AAPL's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) is ranked worse than
63.53% of 255 companies
in the Hardware industry
Industry Median: 1.01 vs AAPL: 1.40
Apple Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Historical Data
The historical data trend for Apple's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
* Premium members only.
Apple Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Chart
Apple Annual Data | ||||||||||||||||||||
Trend | Sep14 | Sep15 | Sep16 | Sep17 | Sep18 | Sep19 | Sep20 | Sep21 | Sep22 | Sep23 | ||||||||||
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) | Get a 7-Day Free Trial | 133.19 | 149.38 | 150.99 | 157.83 | 132.38 |
Apple Quarterly Data | ||||||||||||||||||||
Sep19 | Dec19 | Mar20 | Jun20 | Sep20 | Dec20 | Mar21 | Jun21 | Sep21 | Dec21 | Mar22 | Jun22 | Sep22 | Dec22 | Mar23 | Jun23 | Sep23 | Dec23 | Mar24 | Jun24 | |
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) | Get a 7-Day Free Trial | 147.10 | 132.38 | 156.72 | 137.30 | 141.51 |
Competitive Comparison of Apple's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
For the Consumer Electronics subindustry, Apple's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Apple's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) Distribution in the Hardware Industry
For the Hardware industry and Technology sector, Apple's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Apple's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) falls into.
Apple Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Calculation
This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model with default parameters. In a discounted cash flow model, the future cash flow is estimated based on a cash flow growth rate and a discount rate. The cash flow of the future is discounted to its current value at the discount rate. All of the discounted future cash flow is added together to get the current intrinsic value of the company.
Usually a two-stage model is used when calculating a stock's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called the growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.
GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:
1. Discount Rate: d = 10%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 3.63%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.
2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 14.10%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share). In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share). If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share).
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=> Apple's average Free Cash Flow Growth Rate in the past 10 years was 14.10%, which is between 5% and 20%. => GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 14.10%
3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10
4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%
5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10
6. Free Cash Flow per Share: fcf = $6.726.
However, GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, the EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.
All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.
Apple's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) for today is calculated as
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) | = | Free Cash Flow per Share | * | {[(1+g1)/(1+d) | + | (1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2 | + | ... | + | (1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10] |
+ | (1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10 | * | [(1+g2)/(1+d) | + | (1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2 | + | ... | + | (1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]} |
set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.141)/(1+0.1) = 1.0372727272727
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.1) = 0.94545454545455
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) | = | Free Cash Flow per Share | * | {[x | + | x^2 | + | ... | + | x^10] | + | x^10 | * | [y | + | y^2 | + | ... | + | y^10]} |
= | Free Cash Flow per Share | * | [x | * | (1-x^10) | / | (1-x) | + | x^10 | * | y | * | (1-y^10) | / | (1-y)] | |||||
= | 6.726 | * | 23.0266 | |||||||||||||||||
= | 154.88 |
Margin of Safety (FCF Based) | = | (Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) | - | Current Price) | / | Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) |
= | (154.88 | - | 216.18) | / | 154.88 | |
= | -39.58 % |
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Apple(NAS:AAPL) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Explanation
Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.
Be Aware
What you need to know about the DCF model:
1. The DCF model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that have relatively consistent performance.
4. The DCF model works poorly for inconsistent performers such as cyclicals.
5. What discount rate should you use? Your expected return from the investment is a good discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.
You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.
Apple Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Related Terms
Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Apple's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.
Apple Business Description
Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM »STOCK LIST »Technology » Hardware » Apple Inc (NAS:AAPL) » Definitions » Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
Comparable Companies
VZIO SONO WTO HEAR GPRO UEIC KOSS FEBO VOXX VUZI XKRX:005930 TSE:6758 HKSE:01810 TSE:6752 XKRX:066570 SZSE:002241 BOM:540699 XKRX:003550 SHSE:603296 TSE:6753
Traded in Other Exchanges
AAPL:Ukraine AAPL:Peru AAPL:Mexico 1AAPL:Italy APCd:UK 0R2V:UK APC8:Germany APC:Germany APC:Germany APC:Germany APC:Germany AAPL:Chile AAPL:Canada AAPL34:Brazil APC:Bulgaria AAPL:Austria AAPL:Argentina
Address
One Apple Park Way, Cupertino, CA, USA, 95014
Website
Apple is among the largest companies in the world, with a broad portfolio of hardware and software products targeted at consumers and businesses. Apple's iPhone makes up a majority of the firm sales, and Apple's other products like Mac, iPad, and Watch are designed around the iPhone as the focal point of an expansive software ecosystem. Apple has progressively worked to add new applications, like streaming video, subscription bundles, and augmented reality. The firm designs its own software and semiconductors while working with subcontractors like Foxconn and TSMC to build its products and chips. Slightly less than half of Apple's sales come directly through its flagship stores, with a majority of sales coming indirectly through partnerships and distribution.
Executives
Chris Kondo | officer: Principal Accounting Officer | 1 INFINITE LOOP, CUPERTINO CA 95014 |
Katherine L. Adams | officer: SVP, General Counsel | APPLE INC., 1 INFINITE LOOP, CUPERTINO CA 95014 |
Luca Maestri | officer: Senior Vice President, CFO | 1 INFINITE LOOP, CUPERTINO CA 95014 |
Jeffrey E Williams | officer: COO | ONE INFINITE LOOP, CUPERTINO CA 95014 |
Deirdre O'brien | officer: Senior Vice President | ONE APPLE PARK WAY, CUPERTINO CA 95014 |
Timothy D Cook | director, officer: Chief Executive Officer | C/O APPLE INC, ONE INFINITE LOOP, CUPERTINO CA 95014 |
Arthur D Levinson | director | C/O GENENTECH INC, 1 DNA WAY MS 49, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080-4990 |
Alex Gorsky | director | JOHNSON & JOHNSON, ONE JOHNSON & JOHNSON PLAZA, NEW BRUNSWICK NJ 08933 |
Monica C Lozano | director | |
Angela J Ahrendts | officer: Senior Vice President | 1 INFINITE LOOP, CUPERTINO CA 95014 |
Johny Srouji | officer: Senior Vice President | 1 INFINITE LOOP, CUPERTINO CA 95014 |
Craig Federighi | officer: Senior Vice President | 807 11TH AVENUE, SUNNYVALE CA 94089 |
Daniel J. Riccio | officer: Senior Vice President | 1 INFINITE LOOP, CUPERTINO CA 95014 |
Philip W Schiller | officer: Senior Vice President | C/O APPLE INC, ONE INFINITE LOOP, CUPERTINO CA 95014 |
Susan Wagner | director | C/O BLACKROCK, INC., 40 EAST 52ND STREET, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
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