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By David BoldMarch 25, 2024 No Comments
Amazon has been in the market since 1997 when it started off as an online bookstore for books. Since then, Amazon has expanded to become an all-purpose e-commerce platform and has also made a huge splash in the cloud computing sector with its Amazon Web Services division. The company is also active in artificial intelligence, online advertising, cloud computing, video streaming, and many other sectors.
Amazon’s growth has propelled its founder, Jeff Bezos, to become one of the wealthiest people in the world, with an estimated net worth of $202 billion as of March 2024.
We will be focusing our attention on the future and explore Amazon stock forecasts for 2040 and 2050 using the historical growth rates of major market indices as benchmarks.
Before we continue, let’s quickly see what the price of Amazon stock would look like under various scenarios.
| 2025 | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 | |
| AMZN stock forecast (5% annual growth rate) | $188 | $252 | $410 | $668 |
| AMZN stock forecast (S&P 500 avg. compound annualized return of 11.13%) | $199 | $374 | $1,076 | $3,091 |
| AMZN stock forecast (QTEC avg. annualized compound return of 15.2%) | $206 | $482 | $1,983 | $8,163 |
Amazon stock price history
Since debuting on the market, Amazon stock has increased by a massive 147,635%. In other words, if you invested $1,000 into Amazon when it entered the stock market, you would have almost $1.48 million today.
The most successful years for Amazon stock so far have been 2003, 2007, 2009, 2015, 2020, and 2023.
So far, Amazon stock has been subject to four stock splits. In 1998, the stock saw a 2-for-1 split. The second split was a 3-for-1 split in 1999. The third split also took place in 1999 and was a 3-for-1 split. The fourth and most current Amazon split took place in 2022 and was a 20-for-1 split.
Amazon stock forecast for 2040
Over the last ten years, the average annual return of AMZN stock has been 23.5%. This is unlikely to continue in the coming years, as Amazon simply doesn’t have as much room for growth as it did 10 years ago. It’s already the 6th most valuable company in the world, commanding a market capitalization of just under $1.9 trillion at the time of writing.
For this reason, we’ll be using a more conservative benchmark to explore how high the Amazon stock price could go in the next few decades. We’ve opted to use the average annualized return of the S&P 500 index, which recorded a compounded average growth rate (CAGR) of 11.13% over the past 50 years
A more ambitious benchmark would be the average annual return of the First Trust NASDAQ-100-Technology Sector Index Fund since 2006, which is currently at around 15.2%. We’ll also show what the Amazon stock price would be if it followed this benchmark, although you should keep in mind that this would be an extremely optimistic scenario.
If Amazon stock were to follow the S&P’s historical yearly growth rate of 11.13% until 2040, the stock would be priced at $1,076, or about 6x higher than its current price.
Meanwhile, if it followed the average yearly performance of the QTEC index since 2006 (15.2%), AMZN stock would trade at a whopping $1,983. This would represent an 11.1x increase compared to the stock’s current price.
Amazon stock forecast for 2050
Now, we’re getting into extremely speculative territory, as accurately forecasting the price movements of a single asset 27 years in advance is next to impossible. However, we can get an idea of just how high the price of AMZN would be if it followed market benchmarks for an extended period of time.
If we assume that the Amazon stock price followed the S&P 500’s historical 11.13% yearly rate of return until 2050, the stock would be priced at $3,091, or 17.3x higher than the current price.
Meanwhile, the more optimistic benchmark of QTEC’s 15.2% average yearly performance since 2006 would result in an AMZN stock price of $8,163 or a 45.6x increase compared to the current price. It goes without saying that this scenario is very unrealistic, as Amazon is already the sixth-largest company in the world in terms of market capitalization.
What to expect next for AMZN? Amazon stock price prediction for 2024 and 2025
According to the Amazon stock prediction provided by the CoinCodex platform, we can expect Amazon to display robust growth in 2024. Currently, the platform is forecasting that AMZN will be trading at $254 in March 2024, which would be an increase of roughly 41.4% compared to the current price.
However, the prediction does expect significant volatility in the meantime. It suggests that Amazon stock could dip as low as $121 towards the middle of July. Following this crash, the forecast expects AMZN to rally hard at the end of the year and continue to surge in January, peaking at around $323.
Of course, predicting the price movements of stocks is difficult as the stock markets are affected by countless factors. So, any algorithmic predictions should be taken with a grain of salt.
The bottom line
Amazon has displayed a tremendous evolution from being a niche online retail to becoming a veritable tech giant today. However, we need to keep in mind that Amazon already has a market capitalization of almost $1.9 trillion, which does limit its future growth potential to an extent.
If you’re interested in exploring more topics related to stocks, make sure to check out our article exploring whether Ford stock can reach $100.
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