Key takeaways
- Ethereum (ETH) price is expected to reach new all-time highs in Q2 2024, following the next Bitcoin halving event
- The Bitcoin halving occurs approximately every four years and has historically ushered in a new bull market for blockchain-based digital assets
- ETH rose +2133% after the previous BTC halving to reach its all-time high of $4864, Sporia on TradingView expects a similar level of upside this time around
Here’s how high AI predicts Ethereum price will go after next halving
Ethereum (ETH) is currently valued at $1788 after dropping -2.67% in the past 24 hours. This follows a period of upside in which ETH climbed +23.22% over the course of a 3-week period at the end of October.
The recent surge from ETH means that it has now reclaimed the 50% level on its July-October range in a single bullish move. So far, ETH has held up well at the range’s midway point and early forecasts are suggesting that the positive price action could continue over the coming months.
The ETH price prediction algorithm has forecasted a +253% move by Q2 2024. This would place ETH at $6,339 — a new all-time high for the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap. The main catalyst for the projected move is the Bitcoin (BTC) halving event, where the total mining rewards in each BTC block are cut in half.
What is Bitcoin halving and when is it due to happen?
The Bitcoin halving event occurs every 210,000 blocks, which works out to approximately every four years. The process of reducing the blockchain’s total mining rewards by half provides a greater level of deflationary pressure — after each halving event, the current circulating supply for BTC becomes increasingly scarce.
When each block miner was awarded 12.5 BTC, the circulating supply increased by 1,800 BTC each day. After the 2020 halving event, each block miner was then awarded with 6.25 BTC, which meant that there were just 900 BTC being created each day. As a result, the proportion of the circulating supply that is newly mined is continually reduced, making those that are already in circulation more scarce, and in theory, more valuable.
Bitcoin’s deflationary mechanism has historically ushered in a new bull market for blockchain-based digital assets. BTC formed new all-time highs in 2013, 2017, and 2021 — approximately one year after a halving event took place. Right now, the next Bitcoin halving event is expected to occur on 15th April 2024.
How high could ETH go after the next halving event?
ETH shot up +2133% in total after the previous BTC halving. The move cemented Ethereum’s position as the second-most valuable cryptocurrency by market cap, taking the ecosystem’s native token from $217 to $4,864 in a period of 18 months.
A trader who goes by the username Sporia on TradingView shared a long-term projection for the price of ETH. The chart highlights two parallel channels in which ETH has been trading since the 2018 alt season, including a strong support line that has been held throughout the bear market of 2022 and 2023.
The reversal indicator signal has fired off just 4 times in ETH’s history, each time preceding a massive rally. Image source: TradingView (@Sporia)
Sporia expects that ETH will continue to hold this market structure over the next 5 years. The upper resistance line provides the ETH price target during the next two bull stages of Bitcoin’s 4-year cycles, including a $16,090 price target in 2025. In total, this would be a +799% price increase from the current level.
Bottom line: AI sets bullish near-term target for ETH and long-term outlook remains positive
ETH has been a relative straggler during recent bullish moves in the crypto markets, climbing +60% while the total crypto market cap climbed +80% over the past year. The relative underperformance of ETH during this time frame has increased Bitcoin dominance to more than 50%, which in itself is a metric that has historically heralded a fresh period of upside for the entire crypto market.
The slight underperformance from ETH in recent times should not be a cause for concern. The network was upgraded during the bear market as Ethereum’s consensus mechanism changed from proof-of-work to proof-of-stake during The Merge, which helped make the blockchain more energy efficient.
ETH also benefits from new ETFs and a degree of regulatory clarity from the SEC. On top of that, Ethereum’s various layer-2s have been making major progress in isolation and each one provides an increasing level of buy pressure for the native ETH token.
To summarize, there are plenty of bullish catalysts for ETH, and it seems only a matter of time before the digital asset starts gaining momentum. As things stand, the ETH price prediction algorithm expects a +253% move in the next 7 months, which would take ETH to a new all-time high just 2 months after the next BTC halving event.
