2024 Municipal Bond Market Insights: Mid-year Update (2024)

IN THIS ARTICLE

1.Investing through a mutual fund captures the municipal market opportunity

2.The specter of rising taxes increases the value of tax exemption

3.Deep analysis is necessary to find credits that will outlast headline risk

4.Capitalize on high yield market participants’ overcorrections

5.Individual investors embrace taxable municipal bonds in retirement plans

1. Source: Bloomberg as of June 30, 2024

2. Source: ICE Data as of June 30, 2024

3. https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/briefing-book/how-did-tax-cuts-and-jobs-act-change-personal-taxes

4. https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/historical-debt-outstanding/historical-debt-outstanding

5. https://www.nlc.org/covid-19-pandemic-response/american-rescue-plan-act/arpa-local-relief-frequently-asked-questions/

6. Source: LSEG Lipper Global Fund Flows, J.P. Morgan as of June 27, 2024

7. https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/articles/2023/09/27/state-tax-revenue-declines-from-record-highs and https://higherlogicdownload.s3.amazonaws.com/NASBO/9d2d2db1-c943-4f1b-b750-0fca152d64c2/UploadedImages/Fiscal%20Survey/NASBO_Fall_2023_Fiscal_Survey_of_States_S.pdf

8. Source Moody’s, S&P, and Fitch as of March 31, 2024

9. Source: Bloomberg as of June 30, 2024

10. Source: Morningstar as of June 30, 2024

11. Source: ICE Data as of June 30, 2024

DISCLOSURES

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MacKay Municipal Managers is a trademark of MacKay Shields LLC.

MacKay Shields LLC is a wholly owned subsidiary of New York Life Investment Management Holdings LLC, which is wholly owned by New York Life Insurance Company. "New York Life Investments" is both a service mark, and the common trade name of certain investment advisers affiliated with New York Life Insurance Company. Investments are not guaranteed by New York Life Insurance Company or New York Life Investments.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. It is not possible to invest directly into an index.

NOTE TO UK AND EUROPEAN AUDIENCE

This document is intended only for the use of professional investors as defined in the Alternative Investment Fund Manager’s Directive and/or the UK Financial Conduct Authority’s Conduct of Business Sourcebook. To the extent this document has been issued in the United Kingdom, it has been issued by MacKay Shields UK LLP, 80 Coleman Street, London, UK EC2R 5BJ, which is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority. To the extent this document has been issued in the EEA, it has been issued by to NYL Investments Europe Limited, Hamilton House, 28 Fitzwilliam Place, Dublin 2 Ireland, which is authorised and regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland.

NOTE TO CANADIAN AUDIENCE

The information in these materials is not an offer to sell securities or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction of Canada. In Canada, any offer or sale of securities or the provision of any advisory or investment fund manager services will be made only in accordance with applicable Canadian securities laws. More specifically, any offer or sale of securities will be made in accordance with applicable exemptions to dealer and investment fund manager registration requirements, as well as under an exemption from the requirement to file a prospectus, and any advice given on securities will be made in reliance on applicable exemptions to adviser registration requirements.

MUNICIPAL MUTUAL FUND INVESTMENT RISK DISCLOSURE

Municipal bond risks include the ability of the issuer to repay the obligation, the relative lack of information about certain issuers, and the possibility of future tax and legislative changes, which could affect the market for and value of municipal securities. Investing in below investment grade securities may carry a greater risk of nonpayment of interest or principal than higher-rated securities.

Diversification cannot assure a profit or protect against loss in a declining market.

Investing in municipal mutual funds involves risks, and there is no assurance that the investment objectives of any municipal mutual fund will be attained. Potential investors should consider the risks, fees and consult with a financial advisor before investing. The federal and state tax-free status of municipal bond income can be changed by legislative or regulatory action, potentially impacting the attractiveness and value of these securities. Investors should understand that the value of their investment can fluctuate and that they might lose money. Past performance is not indicative of future results. For detailed information about these risks, potential investors should read the fund's prospectus and consult with a financial advisor.

Active management is the use of a human element, such as a single manager, co-managers or a team of managers, to actively manage a fund’s portfolio. Active management strategies typically have higher fees than passive management.

CREDIT RATING DISCLOSURES:

Bloomberg Credit Rating Disclosure (for index)
For rated securities, credit quality for index classification purposes is assigned as the middle rating of Moody's, S&P and Fitch; when a rating from only two agencies is available, the lower is used; when only one agency rates a bond, that rating is used.

ICE BofA Credit Ratings Disclosure (for index)
ICE BofA utilizes its own composite scale, similar to those of Moody’s, S&P and Fitch, when publishing a composite rating on an index constituent (eg. BBB3, BBB2, BBB1). Index constituent composite ratings are the simple averages of numerical equivalent values of the ratings from Moody’s, S&P and Fitch. If only two of the designated agencies rate a bond, the composite rating is based on an average of the two. Likewise, if only one of the designated agencies rates a bond, the composite rating is based on that one rating.

COMPARISONS TO AN INDEX:

Comparisons to a financial index are provided for illustrative purposes only. Comparisons to an index are subject to limitations because portfolio holdings, volatility and other portfolio characteristics may differ materially from the index. Unlike an index, portfolios within the composite are actively managed and may also include derivatives. There is no guarantee that any of the securities in an index are contained in any managed portfolio. The performance of an index may assume reinvestment of dividends and income, or follow other index-specific methodologies and criteria, but does not reflect the impact of fees, applicable taxes or trading costs which, unlike an index, may reduce the returns of a managed portfolio. Investors cannot invest in an index. Because of these differences, the performance of an index should not be relied upon as an accurate measure of comparison.

All ICE Data Indices referenced herein (Each such Index, The “INDEX”), are products of ICE Data Indices, LLC (“ICE DATA”), and are used with permission. ICE® is a registered trademark of ICE Data or its affiliates , and BofA® is a registered trademark of Bank of America Corporation licensed by Bank of America Corporation and its affiliates ("BofA") and may not be used without BofA's prior written approval. ICE DATA, its affiliates and their respective third part suppliers disclaim any and all warranties and representations, express and/or implied, including any warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose or use, including the Indices, Index data and any data included in, related to, or derived therefrom. Neither ICE Data, its affiliates nor their respective third party suppliers shall be subjected to any damages or liability with respect to the adequacy, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the Indices or the Index data or any component thereof, and the Indices and Index data and all components thereof are provided on an “AS IS” basis and your use is at your own risk. Inclusion of a security within an Index is not a recommendation by ICE Data to buy, sell, or hold such security, nor is it considered to be investment advice. ICE Data, its affiliates and their respective third party suppliers do not sponsor, endorse, or recommend MacKay Shields LLC, or any of its products or services.

“Bloomberg®”, “Bloomberg Indices®”, Bloomberg Fixed Income Indices, Bloomberg Equity Indices and all other Bloomberg indices referenced herein are service marks of Bloomberg Finance L.P. and its affiliates, including Bloomberg Index Services Limited (“BISL”), the administrator of the indices (collectively, “Bloomberg”) and have been licensed for use for certain purposes by MacKay Shields LLC (“MacKay Shields”). Bloomberg is not affiliated with MacKay Shields, and Bloomberg does not approve, endorse, review, or recommend MacKay Shields or any products, funds or services described herein. Bloomberg does not guarantee the timeliness, accurateness, or completeness of any data or information relating to MacKay Shields or any products, funds or services described herein.

INDEX DESCRIPTIONS

ICE BofA US Corporate Index: The ICE BofA US Corporate Index tracks the performance of US dollar denominated investment grade corporate debt publicly issued in the US domestic market

ICE BofA US Taxable Municipal Securities Index: ICE BofA US Taxable Municipal Securities Index tracks the performance of US dollar denominated investment grade taxable municipal securities publicly issued in the US domestic market. Qualifying securities must have an investment grade rating (based on an average of Moody’s, S&P and Fitch). In addition, qualifying securities must have at least one year remaining term to final maturity, at least 18 months to maturity at point of issuance, a fixed coupon schedule and a minimum amount outstanding of $250 million. Callable perpetual securities qualify provided they are at least one year from the first call date. Fixed-to-floating rate securities also qualify provided they are callable within the fixed rate period and are at least one year from the last call prior to the date the bond transitions from a fixed to a floating rate security. Original issue zero coupon bonds and ""global"" securities (debt issued simultaneously in the eurobond and US domestic markets) qualify for inclusion in the Index. Tax-exempt US municipal, 144a and securities in legal default are excluded from the Index. Index constituents are market capitalization weighted. Accrued interest is calculated assuming next-day settlement. Cash flows from bond payments that are received during the month are retained in the index until the end of the month and then are removed as part of the rebalancing. Cash does not earn any reinvestment income while it is held in the index.

Bloomberg Managed Money Intermediate (1-17 yr) Index: Bloomberg Managed Money Intermediate (1-17 yr) Index consists of fixed-coupon, tax exempt municipal bonds issued within the past five years with maturities greater than 1 year and remaining effective maturity no more than seventeen years, with a par value of at least $7 million and issued as part of a transaction of at least $75 million. Securities must be rated in the highest two rating categories by Moody’s, S&P and Fitch (based on middle rating if rated by three agencies, lower rating if rated by two agencies, sole rating if rated by only one agency). Bonds whose purpose is for health care or housing are excluded.

Bloomberg Municipal Bond Index: A rules-based, market-value-weighted index engineered for the long-term tax-exempt bond market. To be included in the index, bonds must be rated investment-grade (Baa3/BBB- or higher) by at least two of the following agencies: Moody's, S&P, Fitch. If only two of the three agencies rate the security, the lower rating is used to determine index eligibility. If only one of the three agencies rates a security, the rating must be investment-grade. They must have an outstanding par value of at least $7 million and be issued as part of a transaction of at least $75 million. The bonds must be fixed rate, have a date-date after December 31, 1990, and must be at least one year from their maturity date. Remarketed issues, taxable municipal bonds, bonds with floating rates, and derivatives, are excluded from the benchmark. The index has four main sectors: general obligation bonds, revenue bonds, insured bonds (including all insured bonds with a Aaa/AAA rating), and pre-refunded bonds. Most of the index has historical data to January 1980. In addition, sub-indices have been created based on maturity, state, sector, quality, and revenue source, with inception dates later than January 1980.

Bloomberg Municipal High Yield Index: An unmanaged index of municipal bonds with the following characteristics: fixed coupon rate, credit rating of Ba1 or lower or non-rated using the middle rating of Moody's, S&P, and Fitch, outstanding par value of at least $3 million, and issued as part of a transaction of at least $20 million. In addition, the bonds must have a dated-date after December 31, 1990 and must be at least one year from their maturity date.

2024 Municipal Bond Market Insights: Mid-year Update (2024)

FAQs

What is the outlook for municipal bond funds in 2024? ›

In 2024, we believe municipal market prices will rise and mutual funds will provide a compelling vehicle to capture that performance potential. We believe that active portfolio positioning and flexibility are providing an edge so far this year. For example, the municipal yield curve has been inverted all year.

Will bond prices rise in 2024? ›

Although it is always difficult to predict short-term outcomes, our simulations as of June 30 of each year showed that the likelihood was much higher in 2024 than in 2021 that interest rates would fall (and bond prices rise).

What is the outlook for the municipal bond market? ›

Although the market is off to a rough start to the year, we think it should recover. We continue to have a favorable view of munis due to high attractive yields and generally favorable credit conditions. There may be bouts of volatility during the second half of the year largely due to the election.

What is the outlook for Nuveen Municipal? ›

Credit remains strong, with robust levels of rainy day and reserve funds. Governments are adjusting for normalization of revenue collections.. We expect municipal defaults will remain low, rare and idiosyncratic. Supply has picked up relative to 2023 levels and could be more predominant before the U.S. election.

Why are muni bonds struggling? ›

There are a couple of possible explanations why ratios have declined over time, but we believe the most likely is due to supply-and-demand factors. Since 2015, when the 10-year ratio averaged over 100%, the market value of munis outstanding has only increased 4% before considering the impact of inflation.

Can municipal bonds lose value? ›

There are two main risks of bonds. The first is interest rate risk, sometimes called duration risk. This is the risk that your bond (whether owned directly or via a fund) loses value when interest rates go up.

Will interest rates go down again in 2024? ›

No, not unless there's an event such as another global pandemic or economic crisis forcing the Fed to lower rates to 0.00% – 0.25% again. In January 2024, the National Association of REALTOR (NAR)'s Chief Economist Dr. Lawrence Yun famously stated that he doesn't expect rates to fall below 3% again in his lifetime.

What are the best bonds to invest in 2024? ›

Top 8 bonds to invest in for the long term
NameTickerYield
Vanguard Tax-Exempt Bond ETF(NYSEMKT:VTEB)3.5%
Vanguard Short-Term Corporate Bond Index Fund(NASDAQMUTFUND:VSCSX)5.1%
Guggenheim Total Return Bond Fund(NASDAQMUTFUND:GIBIX)5.1%
Vanguard Total International Bond Index Fund(NASDAQ:BNDX)3.2%
4 more rows
Jul 25, 2024

What is the financial market outlook for 2024? ›

We expect monetary policy to become increasingly restrictive in real terms in 2024 as inflation falls and offsetting forces wane. The economy will experience a mild downturn as a result. This is necessary to finish the job of returning inflation to target.

What is the downside of municipal bonds? ›

Cons. Market prices could tank: If interest rates go up, the market prices of existing bonds will go down. That means you could have to sell your bond at a loss.

What is the typical return on municipal bonds? ›

The current yield is ~4.27%. An investment with $1 million par value (~$1.02 million market value with accrued interest) will generate a federally tax-exempt annual coupon cash flow of ~$43,125. According to The Bond Buyer, $7.8 billion in new issuance is expected to come to market this week.

What are municipal bonds doing? ›

Municipal bonds are debt obligations that states, cities, counties and other public entities issue to finance infrastructure projects such as building schools, highways and sewer systems, as well as to fund the issuer's day-to-day obligations.

Which asset class will perform best in 2024? ›

8 asset class investment ideas for 2024
  • Stocks.
  • Mutual funds and exchange-traded funds.
  • Bonds.
  • Cash.
  • Roth IRAs.
  • Alternative investments.
  • Real estate.
  • Work income.
Jun 24, 2024

How many Municipal bonds have defaulted? ›

According to Moody's report, there were only 115 distinct Moody's-rated defaults, representing a little over $72 billion, across the whole universe of more than 50,000 different state, local, and other issuing authorities between 1970 and 2022.

How much are Municipal bonds paying? ›

Municipal Bonds
NameYield1 Day
BVMB2Y:IND Muni Bonds 2 Year Yield2.42%0
BVMB5Y:IND Muni Bonds 5 Year Yield2.41%0.00
BVMB10Y:IND Muni Bonds 10 Year Yield2.63%0
BVMB30Y:IND Muni Bonds 30 Year Yield3.56%0
1 more row

What are the best bond funds for 2024? ›

17 Best Bond Funds for Rebalancing in 2024
  • American Funds Bond Fund of America ABNDX.
  • Baird Aggregate Bond BAGSX.
  • Baird Core Plus Bond BCOSX.
  • BlackRock Total Return MDHQX.
  • BlackRock Total Return ETF BRTR.
  • Dodge & Cox Income DODIX.
  • Fidelity Investment Grade Bond FBNDX.
  • Fidelity Total Bond FTBFX.
May 2, 2024

What is the future for bond funds? ›

The bond market in 2024 continues to exhibit topsy-turvy dynamics, with yields on short-term bonds exceeding those of some longer-term bonds. This inverted yield curve emerged in late 2022.

Are municipal bond funds a good investment? ›

Municipal bonds are considered a relatively safe fixed-income investment. GO bonds are usually considered safer than revenue bonds, as a municipality can raise taxes to cover outstanding debt obligations. In contrast, revenue bonds are subject to the earnings made by that particular project.

What is the current return on municipal bonds? ›

AA RATED MUNI BONDS
issuematurity rangetoday
national10 year2.70
national20 year3.40
national30 year3.70

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